Wednesday morning #masen briefing #mapoli

What will the turnout be next Tuesday? Here are some numbers to ponder. In the 2009 GOP special primary for US Senate the Scott Brown v Jack E. Robinson “contest” pulled in 164K voters and in 2012 with no statewide races 138K pulled a GOP lever. Dems got out 379K in the 2012 uncontested primary and spiked to 668K in the 2009 four way special.

150K seems to be the GOP floor and 380K the Dem floor.

GOP primary turnout September 2012: 138,530 no statewide race, presidential year

Dem primary turnout September 2012: 379,960 no statewide race, presidential year

GOP primary turnout September 2010: 241,069 limited statewide races

Dem primary turnout September 2010: 487,816 limited statewide races

GOP Special primary turnout September 2009: 164,540 a then unknown Scott Brown v. the ever popular Jack E. Robinson

Dem Special primary turnout September 2009: 668,926 Coakley, Capuano, Khazei, Pagliuca

Sprinfield debate.

While Gomez and Winslow blast away and release planned endorsements, Sullivan has been relatively quiet since Monday morning, maybe that doesn’t matter if he is spending all that time on GOTV?

Winslow is going after Gomez on The Letter with a new website and an aggressive twitter effort, I’m thinking Winslow can’t draw from Sullivan’s conservative base, so Gomez voters are his only option.

The Markey strategy is the olde standby of a candidate perceived to be ahead: everything your opponent does is a sign of his losing and desperate campaign. Plus Dem primary voters love Obamacare and abortion rights too:

It has come to this: