@gomezforma new radio ad “Oportunidades” #masen #mapoli

Translation provided by Gomez camp:

If you work hard and study hard, this country will give you all the opportunities you want.

That’s what my parents would tell me as a child.

And that’s what I tell my four children now.

But the situation in this country worries me. I worry that our children will not have the opportunities this country gave me.

Hello, I am Gabriel Gomez, son of Colombian parents and candidate for Senate.

I am speaking to you today to ask you to vote for me on June 25.

To give thanks to this country, I served in the military as a pilot in the Navy and later as a Navy SEAL.

Now, I want to serve the families of Massachusetts.

I’m going to Washington to fight for policies that create more jobs, and for a solution to our immigration system that will welcome others like us who want to achieve the American dream.

 I am Gabriel Gomez, candidate for the Senate, I hope to get your vote on June 25 and I approve this message.

Wednesday morning #masen briefing #mapoli

What will the turnout be next Tuesday? Here are some numbers to ponder. In the 2009 GOP special primary for US Senate the Scott Brown v Jack E. Robinson “contest” pulled in 164K voters and in 2012 with no statewide races 138K pulled a GOP lever. Dems got out 379K in the 2012 uncontested primary and spiked to 668K in the 2009 four way special.

150K seems to be the GOP floor and 380K the Dem floor.

GOP primary turnout September 2012: 138,530 no statewide race, presidential year

Dem primary turnout September 2012: 379,960 no statewide race, presidential year

GOP primary turnout September 2010: 241,069 limited statewide races

Dem primary turnout September 2010: 487,816 limited statewide races

GOP Special primary turnout September 2009: 164,540 a then unknown Scott Brown v. the ever popular Jack E. Robinson

Dem Special primary turnout September 2009: 668,926 Coakley, Capuano, Khazei, Pagliuca

Sprinfield debate.

While Gomez and Winslow blast away and release planned endorsements, Sullivan has been relatively quiet since Monday morning, maybe that doesn’t matter if he is spending all that time on GOTV?

Winslow is going after Gomez on The Letter with a new website and an aggressive twitter effort, I’m thinking Winslow can’t draw from Sullivan’s conservative base, so Gomez voters are his only option.

The Markey strategy is the olde standby of a candidate perceived to be ahead: everything your opponent does is a sign of his losing and desperate campaign. Plus Dem primary voters love Obamacare and abortion rights too:

It has come to this:

Winslow camp out with new website attacking Gomez on The Letter #masen #mapoli

Gomez letter

The Winslow camp released a new website today, gomezletter.com, which features The Letter Gomez wrote to Gov. Patrick asking to to be appointed US Senator. 

Site here: http://www.gomezletter.com/

The micro site features a video of Winslow and is very similar to the site the Winslow camp launched minutes before the bombings last week called gomezisrunning.com.  Winslow pulled gomezisrunning.com minutes after launching the site last Monday.

A screen shot of gomezisrunning.com is posted in the Monday briefing.

Monday morning #masen briefing #mapoli

The postponed Markey-Lynch Springfield debate will be Tuesday night at 7PM.

A few days ago the Globe endorsed Markey and Winslow today.

This morning Weld endorsed Gomez.

Xpenditure Pipeline. The Fire Fighters spent over $2538 just to fuel the big yellow Lynch bus and thousands on “Motor Coach Rental & Wrapping”. Look up all your obscure independent expenditures here.

Fire Fighter Bus

Klassy with a K. Sullivan sent out a mailer featuring The Letter from Gomez, but the direct mail piece did not obscure the names of the Gomez children, his phone number or his gmail address.

Faux Fail? Maybe he doesn’t need to buy TV time? Mike Sullivan, who wants to revoke citizenship of Dzhokhar Tsamaev, has been getting tons of face time on Fox News but, Fox fails to mention he is a candidate for US Senate.

Very small sample sizes, high sampling error percentage, proceed with caution from Western New England University Polling Institute.

Likely Democratic Primary voters, Sample size 270, +/-6%
Markey 44%
Lynch 34%
Undecided: 21%

Republican Primary, Sample size 128, +/-9%
Gomez 33%
Sullivan 27%
Winslow 9%
Undecided 30%

Ten minutes before the bombing, the Winslow camp sent a press advisory announcing the launch of a micro site called gomezisrunning.com The Winslow camp took the site down within minutes and eventually replaced it with information on where to donate blood in “support of the victims of the Boston Marathon explosions” but not before we got a screen shot.

Gomezisrunning final

The basics of the FEC numbers due on April 18th, books closed April 10th. Don’t forget none this includes independent expenditures.

Money Bags Markey
Starting balance:$3,050,589
Raised: $4,759,928
Spent: $3,171,645
Cash on hand: $4,638,872

Lynch Bucket
Starting balance:$743,620
Raised: $1,543,919
Spent: $1,767,444
Cash on hand: $514,271

Winslow Who?
Starting balance:$0
Raised: $244,499
Candidate loans: $150,050
Spent: $252,306
Cash on hand: $142,243

Spare Change Sullivan?
Starting balance:$0
Raised: $174,498
Spent: $78,128
Cash on hand: $96,369

Gomez, my FEC data doesn’t populate, so @dbernstein is reporting for me???

#masen afternoon update #mapoli

Gomez has placed $233,000 of television ads and hopes to add another $100K in the next two weeks. The Gomez camp thinks “Gabriel is in great position to win this thing, if he survives the Boston Marathon on Monday.”

Geek out! Dan Winslow wants to know if Congress was an app would you download it?

Would be news if he didn’t: Plymouth County District Attorney Tim Cruz endorses former Plymouth County DA Mike Sullivan. The Sullivan camp wants to make sure you didn’t miss this from Jack Fowler at National Review.

Not exactly prime time. Nothing new from Markey, but I’m told he’ll be live in-studio tonight at 10PM on Dan Rea, WBZ-Radio 1030.

Odd timing? After I posted this GOTV piece in the morning, Sullivan announced by lunchtime that he added Desiree Awiszio as his campaign’s Deputy Campaign Manager for Field Operations. Recently, Awiszio served as Deputy Campaign Manager for Marty Lamb for Congress.

Lynch hits Merricmack Valley Saturday with stops in Lawrence, Dracut, Chelmsford, Lowell, Haverhill and slugs it out with two-time WBA heavyweight champ John Ruiz in Medford. What no Micky Ward? Update: Lynch camp amended schedule drops Medford stop with Ruiz.

The Winslow camp is pushing this video from the debate Wednesday. They want to know if Sullivan won’t answer “because He Is Currently Being Paid By The Gun Lobby?”

Lastly, since @Norsu2 keeps asking: